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Who will test Mayweather? Baldomir an Unlikely Candidate...
WED, November 1 Michael Moore -
Every sport has their polarizing athletes. The guy who fans either rabidly love, or passionately hate. Deion Sanders. Terrell Owens. Allen Iverson. Supremely confident men whose talent is immeasurable, but who march to the beat of their own drum and in turn, tend to rub people the wrong way. Right now in boxing, Floyd Mayweather, Jr occupies that position. In the eyes of most boxing experts and novices alike, Mayweather is the mythical pound for pound champion; which means that he is talked about seemingly ad-nauseam within the sport. Rare does a week go by without a healthy dose of Floyd coverage, and all you need to do is spend 20 seconds on any boxing message board to see that he is a constant hot topic. To put it simply, there is no need for me to recap the life story and family drama that you have heard a million times over.
This Saturday, Mayweather will step into the ring with Argentina's Carlos Baldomir, who won the welterweight championship by stunning Zab Judah early this year. We know about his spectacular ring skills, his precise counterpunching and slick defense. What we don't know about Floyd however, is how he will react to facing a true welterweight, particularly a determined fighter like Carlos Baldomir. The Mayweather fan contingent will be quick to tell you that a fighter like Baldomir is completely outclassed in the ring with 'Pretty Boy'. People will say that he is in too deep, and that the welterweight champion is simply living a dream, one that will come to a harsh ending November 4th. Just as often, you will see boxing fans point to Mayweather's superior handspeed, his experience level, and his above average ring IQ. On paper, I must say, that I agree with most of it. A plodding fighter like Baldomir, who is limited in his attack, limited in power, and not so quick of hand is tailor made for Floyd, despite the noticeable size differences.
The detractors however, can make some valid points. Some possible chinks in the armor of boxing's reigning Superman. First, let's not beat around the bush; Mayweather isn't a true welterweight. That only means but so much, as there have been plenty of undersized former lightweights who found success at boxing's most decorated division. But there have been noticeable differences from the flashy kid that fought at 130 lbs., winning his first world title in emphatic fashion over Genaro Hernandez. Mayweather seems to have become heavier in the foot. He stands and trades, relying on his upper body movement and well timed counter more, where as before, he tended to jump in and out with hooks, and pick his spots. This could be an intriguing factor with the much larger Baldomir, who will be more than willing to take three to land one. Some attribute it to the extra weight; some attribute it to Floyd adopting a more fan friendly style, in an effort to gain the superstardom that he has craved since entering the professional ranks. I tend to think it is a bit of both, honestly, but I don't think either will affect on the outcome of this fight. The only man to ever give Pretty Boy any trouble was Jose Luis Castillo, who utilized feints, some roughhouse tactics, and a relentless attack to cause Mayweather to narrowly escape with a victory in their first bout. It has been mentioned by some that this is the blueprint to beat him. Can Baldomir do this? One other issue worth mentioning; this will be the first fight in many years that Floyd will be without his trusted trainer, Uncle Roger, who is suspended for entering the ring during the infamous altercation in the Judah bout this past April. I for one think that Leonard Ellerbe will fill in for Roger without missing a beat; but it is an issue worth noting nonetheless, and could perhaps have some impact if Floyd becomes frustrated with the tough Argentinean.
Why do I think Mayweather will win? There is one thing that you can say about Floyd; He always comes prepared. While Floyd is too proud to lose his "0" to a guy like Baldomir, equally important to him, he doesn't want to lose his chance at a potential megafight with the Golden Boy, the sport's resident cash cow Oscar De La Hoya. It is the fight that Mayweather has wanted his entire career. A win over Oscar legitimizes him as a star, in both his mind, and in the mind of the general public; the ones that make fights like De La Hoya-Mayorga chalk up more than double the pay per view numbers of Mayweather-Judah. The attention a De La Hoya fight brings is something that Antonio Margarito or even 2-time De La Hoya conqueror Shane Mosley can't come close to matching. A win over De La Hoya makes Mayweather a household name. Not a Ray Leonard, but the closest that he will ever be to that. He will be ready to go, and he will handle his business with his usual impeccable professionalism.
My prediction:
I see Saturday's matchup starting similar to Mayweather-Judah, and ending similar to Mayweather-Gatti. The early rounds will show Baldomir stalking Floyd, and Mayweather tentatively figuring out Baldomir's patterns and tendencies, as well as seeing what kind of heat Carlos can bring. It wouldn't surprise me too much if he lost a couple of rounds, simply due to inactivity during the feeling out process. Around the 4th round, Floyd starts throwing more leather, as he has timed the slower, more predictable Baldomir. This is when the fight starts becoming onesided. Mayweather is landing his right hands at will, and Baldomir has no answer but comes forward valiantly regardless. After several rounds of Baldomir essentially getting beaten up, his corner mercifully stops it somewhere between the 6th and the 8th. If this goes down differently, I will gladly eat my share of crow, but I'm thinking Baldomir's size advantages will be negated with speed and precision. He is too limited offensively to give Floyd fits, as fellow pound for pound list regular Jose Luis Castillo did in their first fight in 2002. I fully expect Baldomir to give his all the ring, but come up short when it's all said and done. Floyd Mayweather lives for moments like this, and he will not be denied. Tune in November 4th on HBO PPV.
Side note:
I recommend that anyone who hasn't done so to watch HBO's 'Countdown: Baldomir-Mayweather'. By far the most well done preview show in this series to date, and it paints a great picture of Baldomir's tough road to the top of the mountain. Hats off to HBO for such an excellent production.
Michael Moore can be reached at: mmoore@talkingboxing.com - and always enjoys receiving your thoughts, comments and questions.
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